FCP Roundtable: Closing the Book
Moderated by Mike
In the lull between last week’s judicial system news on a few of the Celtics younger players and the steep rise in the collective anxiety of Celtics Nation with the approach of the lottery we convened a final Full Court Press roundtable to review the smoking rubble of the Celtics season.
1. There’s been a lot of talk on FSNE about the value of this season in helping the Celtics identify their “core guys.” Who do you see as the team’s core for the future, and who should be trade bait?
Steve: Paul Pierce is still the best player on the team and remains core guy #1 as he has been since he was drafted. The obvious keeper out of all their young talent is Al Jefferson. He seems to have eliminated some of his softness both physically and mentally and he did take the giant leap forward offensively that so many expected in 05-06. He still can be frustrating to watch on the defensive end but his rebounding was improved. Another positive is that he also seems to be a well grounded guy compared to some of his young gun teammates. In the third spot, I think Rajon Rondo’s NBA future is bright due to his athleticism and defensive ability. I think that he’ll grow to be a productive point guard in the league pretty soon. Draft pick X is also obviously going to be part of the core.
Gerald Green is a tough call. I think Green’s obvious athletic talent gives him the most potential trade value, but then again lots of teams passed on him in the draft and his play his first two years may not have compelled them to change their minds. One can always hope some team gets Stansburys in its eyes after GG took Vegas by storm.
Gomes, Allen and West look like NBA role players but I don’t think they will represent the core of this or any other team, and I don’t see them having much trade value. Szczerbiak is an overpaid declining player who doesn’t belong on this team. Perkins is a backup center or power forward at best. Ray, Scalabrine, Powe, Olowokandi, and Ratliff are nos, and Telfair is of course gone already.
Tim: I think having three good players (Pierce, Al, Oden/Durant) on a squad will be what benefits the second tier players the most. I’m buying the Pedro Martinez saves the bullpen trickle down theory. As an example if you’ve got Oden in the middle, suddenly West’s ability to stop dribble penetration is masked by the big guy’s ability to defend the rim. I like West as your 7th or 8th guy.
The addition of Oden would obviously cut deeply into Perk’s minutes. I’d like having him around to spell Oden/Jefferson if they’re in foul trouble. He’s a body, nothing more. I’d rather see an older veteran in there as the third big. Greg Kite played more than ten years and never averaged six points a game. This may be where Perk is headed.
Gomes I look at as a Malik Rose type. Not so much in their individual games, he’s not nearly as tough on the boards, but he’s a cliché guy, someone who isn’t great at any one thing, but who can help out as an 8th guy on a good team. He improved on his range as the season went on, even if his jumper is still inconsistent. He had a significant jump in his ability to shoot the three (while taking five times as many threes as he did last year) which would be a huge plus off the bench.
I have no idea what Tony Allen will be able to do off of this injury, and I put Wally in this category as well. Wally as a sixth man might be fine, but I have no idea what his health will be. He’s such a liability defensively, that I don’t have much use for him, even if he was healthy.
I like Gerald Green. I think he will be a 20 plus a night guy in this league. Offensively, I think he might even be ahead of Joe Johnson’s developmental curve, and that’s ok. I’m just not sure he brings anything else to the table. He doesn’t rebound, can’t pass, and can’t defend. Whether or not you get one of the top two picks, I would try and move Green this off season. He’s the one guy who could get you a good veteran, either in a package with Theo or with a pick. (Though any trade may have to contain both)
Rondo is in there too, but I’ll discuss him more later.
Mike: Pierce and Jefferson are easily the cornerstones. After that it is sort of a mixed bag from where I am sitting. I really like watching West and Gomes play, and like Tim I think they can both be valuable contributors off the bench for a winning team. But if one of them had to go I would not blink twice, assuming it brought back something the team needed. Call them semi-core.
Rondo is definitely in the core. While he hasn’t yet arrived he certainly deserves an opportunity to build off the marked improvement he made from the beginning of the year until the end. (Now if he could just find a keep-them-honest jumper this summer…) Perkins needs to be in there too, as he brings a tenacity on the defensive end and on the glass that is sorely needed by the size-challenged Cs. Finally, I’m including Tony Allen. Part of this is a ridiculously optimistic hope that the TA that put it all together during the stretch before his injury was the natural progression of the flashes we saw in his rookie year. But clearly this will have to be a tentative spot pending his physical this fall.
Gerald Green cannot leave town fast enough for me. I think his development requires a few more years with a team willing to tolerate the steep learning curve he needs to ascend to be an NBA contributor. I am hoping that the Celtics will be losing that tolerance shortly after the lottery results are revealed in three weeks. Wally….I have no feelings about Wally. I’d love it if he were a consistent sharpshooter off the bench next year, but I’m not holding my breath.
2. Of those core guys, which player’s improvement over the offseason will provide the most benefit to the team?
Mike: The inconsistency of the team’s point guard play this season makes that an immediate focus, but I am going to say Tony Allen. Obviously this is taking improvement in medical condition terms as well as basketball skillwise, but a healthy Allen brings a different type of game to the table than anyone else on the team. He plays a more tenacious brand of defense than anyone on the team with the possible exception of Perk, and he showed an impressive ability to get the rim when he wasn’t overdribbling or picking up a charging foul that we all could see coming from a mile away. The last impressive stretch of play for TA before his injury appeared to me to be nothing more than a realization about how to play to his strengths while minimizing the things he didn’t do well. Hopefully that learning can stand him in good stead despite losing a fraction of an inch off his jump or a millisecond off his first step to the surgery.
On another note, Rivers has cited Allen as a prime factor in the team’s ability to “go small”, as he can defend many different positions on the floor. With the success of the Warriors and Suns with their smallball lineups in these playoffs, it is intriguing to imagine the Celtics having the ability to effectively take advantage of that type of lineup as well. Especially with one of the draft prizes in their lineup (fingers continue to be crossed).
Tim: The point guard position, as much as ODURANT will be what the 2007-2008 season hinges on. The most depressing thing about the playoffs to me is watching Deron Williams play basketball. His understanding of spacing and movement and his ability to take care of the ball is just awesome. All of Rondo’s athleticism doesn’t mean a thing unless can manage the game in the half court set. Rondo’s game probably won’t ever be as much fun to watch, but if he improves his efficiency, he can be decent on a team where he doesn’t have to do much outside of getting the ball to Pierce on the wing or turning the corner and getting inside of twelve feet where he can draw and kick, shoot his runner, or dump it. I would like to add that his end of season numbers were pretty good. RON BORGES RANDOMLY SELECTED DATE IN THE PAST TO MAKE MY CASE WARNING: His A/To rate for April was 4.26. Numbers accrued while playing out the string don’t mean much, but I’m taking what I can get, and I’ll throw his 23-25 finish from the line into the mix as well. Even if he can’t hit a standstill jumper next year, simple growth in his game management would be a plus.
Steve: Rajon Rondo for sure. Of all the young guys on the team, he plays the position that could reap the most benefits if he can shoot a bit and continue to improve the other strengths of his game as he did throughout the year. It’s easy to see Rondo playing 30+ minutes per game next year. Gerald Green could take a summer quantum leap but he still isn’t going to get too many minutes with all the wing guys around.
3. Doc Rivers will be entering the last year of his contract and has been lobbying for an extension. What if anything would you do to address his situation?
Tim: Giving him an extension would not be an option in a reasonable world. Forget extension, he shouldn’t be around for next year. I don’t want him near another young Celtics draftee. He should have to register with Pete Newell and wear an ankle bracelet if he wants to coach Oden. It’s apparent that the ownership group is not going to eat the final year of the contract. I originally thought that he was going to be rewarded for the tank job, for falling on his sword. Apparently, it goes beyond this. A one year audition with a decent amount of talent makes sense to the less than rational among us. You want to waste one more year of Pierce’s peak? Fine, go for it. But extending the guy is the height of lunacy. If the don’t extend him and he returns in the fall he’ll probably get fired after a four game losing streak in December. At which time any available veteran coach from this off season will already have a job. But that’s the kind of foresight we’re dealing with here. I just can’t believe that Wyc would be so incredibly stupid as to put a team that can win 46-48 games with Oden in the mix (which probably gets you a top four seed in the East) in the hands of Rivers. But as long as he’s still spotted dining at Davio’s by an Inside Track dime dropper, I guess it doesn’t matter.
Steve: The worst thing Ainge could do is extend Rivers. There is no way that this ploy by Rivers should result in his getting an extension. One of my biggest qualms about watching this team is that they lose a little too graciously, and it’s hard to imagine Doc isn’t at least partially responsible for this laissez-faire attitude. The cynical side of me thinks that he’s lobbying so he can get out of this situation, get back to color commentary and spend some more time with his family.
Mike: I’m with you guys. If they aren’t going to upgrade, then let him coach out the lame duck year. If the kids tune him out, that’s his problem. Nate McMillan took the Sonics to the WC finals a few years ago in the final year of his contract and with a team with less on-paper talent than the Cs. I fail to see why a guy like Rivers deserves to be treated differently.
4. Paul Pierce has frequently referenced the need to pick up a few veterans to help him share the leadership role for the Celtics youth movement. Do you agree, or is it time to start shopping Pierce himself?
Steve: I don’t think that Pierce will be traded during his current contract.
Pierce has earned the right to express his opinion on this matter. He’s the only player on the team who has ever taken a professional basketball team anywhere interesting besides the lottery. One of the errors that the team has made during the Pierce era is that they have seemingly brought in veterans that complimented Pierce’s personality rather than his on court game. Despite being an old teammate, bringing in LaFrentz and his perimeter game didn’t compliment Pierce’s game on the court. Szczerbiak is an even worse fit since he plays the same position as Pierce and also wants 15-20 shots a game.
After Pierce’s injury layoff, his rebounding numbers took a big fall. Some of that may be improvement from Jefferson in that area, but I’m guessing some of that is also age. The man has played 40 minutes a game for nine NBA seasons and really has only missed a handful of games besides this past season and his rookie year. He’s always hit the glass and he’s always driven to the hoop fearlessly. Pierce’s future in the NBA seems to be moving ever so slowly out to the perimeter as he enters his thirties.
Mike: I don’t think it’s time to start shopping Pierce, but that is mostly because his value is probably at a low ebb after he let his portly cousin Pablo play out the end of the year for him.
I think with an added piece or two in the right spots Pierce could be the foundation of a winning team for a few years to come. However, if Pierce comes back in fighting form (which I expect) and the team finds itself with Oden or Durant it may make sense to keep their ears open for offers next summer, or even as soon as next year’s trade deadline. It’s so rare to get fair value for a superstar like PP, but if a team is willing to pay a king’s ransom to get him it may allow the Cs to set themselves up talent- and cap-wise for a team built around Jefferson and the rookie.
Do I trust Ainge to thread that needle? Probably not.
Tim: The window for Pierce may be closing, but I have a hard time believing that he won’t come into camp looking trim. The only evidence I have to support this is the fact that basketball seems to be so important to him, and I can’t imagine him showing up looking like Schilling. Whether or not his body will allow him to play 75-plus games again is another matter. I don’t usually believe in rewarding people for what they’ve accomplished in the past, but Pierce deserves a shot to play with Good Al and hopefully, a stud rookie. I don’t think that the need for a veteran guard can be overstated. Even if Rondo does develop, you need someone who can be your secondary ballhandler (and the primary ballhandler down the stretch). Having West off the ball is a win-win for all parties. A veteran guard would also allow you to go offense/defense with West/Rondo depending on matchups and situations.
5. If the Cs do decide to get involved in the free agent or trade market for a veteran, what kind of player should it be?
Tim: I know that I have personally beat the “Veteran guard!” mantra into the ground, but it can’t be said enough. With that being my primary concern, if they don’t get Oden, I think you need another big to help on the boards. Durant will be a decent enough rebounder from the wing right away, but he’s not throwing a body on Ben Wallace. Even with Oden, I want another big. I really cannot rationally analyze what they will or should do if they don’t get one of the top two picks.
Steve: Based on my feeling that Pierce’s future is at the 2 and that Wally’s future is on an exercise bike, I’d like to see them acquire a veteran 3 or a 3/4 that can rebound and play defense. My second choice, which I’m guessing will be echoed in a “Row of Chairs”-like fashion, is a veteran point guard – preferably one without a celebrity lawyer.
Mike: For me it’s a veteran rebounder and defender, without question. A veteran PG would be nice, but I feel like the team can win with what it has for the time being in the backcourt. Up front is a different story. It was clear throughout the year that Perk and Jefferson were two-thirds of a viable rotation at the big man slots, but the team clearly lost effectiveness with whoever else they plugged in there. On the defensive end the team hid Al from any mobile PFs, and while Perk was game for the challenge it was clear that he wasn’t always the right answer for those assignments. So I’m hoping against hope the team finds its way into a discounted big man like Jermaine O’Neal or Andrei Kirilenko who can come in and bring order to the interior defense while the young guys learn their way around. I’d even take a journeyman like Joe Smith, especially if the ping pong balls turn up young Mr. Oden.
6. If we survive the calamity of the Celtics not getting one of the top two picks, who else in the draft would you like to see the Celtics take?
Tim: Everyone else in the draft scares me, outside of Al Horford. I like Horford, but I just can’t see taking someone who will turn out to be a lesser version of Jefferson; albeit one who is a better defender. (Though I would vote for “Al In the Family” in the Globe’s contest to name the new big man tandem) I don’t know a thing about the foreign guys and I don’t like the Wrights. Brandan needs bulk and is pure upside. Julian can’t shoot. I really like Corey Brewer, but I wouldn’t take a chance on him that high in the draft, and I’m not sure he helps the Celtics get that much better right away. I don’t think there’s anyone else worth talking about taking that high. I wouldn’t touch Spencer Hawes with a thirteen foot ten inch pole. (or approximately the length of Eric Montross and Acie Earl stacked on top of each other)
Mike: I like Julian Wright or Corey Brewer. Not necessarily because they are finished products right now, but they seem to have NBA bodies and games that can grow (a contrast to the Gomes/Powe model of polished games but NBDL size). While Wright isn’t much of a shooter, he has excellent court sense and good passing skills. If he can find ways to rebound in the pros he’d be a nice player for a running team someday. Brewer I just find interesting. If Al Jefferson is going to be the low post standby for this team for the future I think it will help to have mobile guys around him who can cause havoc on the defensive end and hit the glass hard from all positions (including Rondo at PG). Putting a less mobile big man like Hibbert or Hawes with him makes no sense to me.
Steve: I think the Florida team is a clear example of the sum adding up to more than the individual parts, although Al Horford would be my choice of their three likely lottery picks. There’s no way to know whether China’s Yi Jianlian would be better than any of these college players, but he’s intriguing. I admit that I’d have a certain suspicion that drafting Jianlian would be a lame attempt by Wyc and Danny to capitalize on the Red Sox current success dabbling in Asian markets. If he ends up hiring an agent, I wouldn’t be disappointed to see them take Roy Hibbert because he’s a good kid, he’s got NBA size at 7-2, and he’s got above average passing skills for a center (important if Jefferson is here for the long term, because Al is a bit of a black hole when it comes to ball movement). Hibbert however may not be athletic enough to justify a top 5 pick.
Thanks to everyone for stopping by over the course of this season. We’ll check in again over the offseason with some unfounded predictions of dominance or inconsolable screeds of pain once the lottery results come out.
