By Rich and Mike
The Celtics’ draft night trade has sparked much debate amongst the fandom regarding the team’s direction (or lack thereof). Two Full Court Press roundtable contributors give their thoughts on the trade and the road ahead.
First from Rich:
Danny Ainge is getting killed from all angles by the national media after Thursday evening’s Ray Allen deal. We have learned that 32 year old Shooting Guards have the fast track to oblivion nailed down. We have also learned that Danny has no vision and no plan. We have learned that this was a knee jerk reaction and obviously a move by a desperate man.
If this was part two of the Celtics restructuring plan would these same pundits be hammering away at Danny? I highly doubt it. If the Celtics had made acquiring a defensive minded big man top priority and then went after Allen you would hear a different tune.
As it is what did Danny do to our beloved Celtics? Oh my goodness he traded away Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak (@ 13M a year) and the rights to the 5th pick–which turned out to be Jeff Green based on Seattle’s preference.
According to Chad Ford the proper thing to do was to draft Yi Jianlian because he had the most upside. Darko Milicic also had the most upside in the 2003 draft–thanks for the advice Chad.
Even if you break it down monetarily the Celtics only acquired one more year of a high salary and there has to be an assumption that West would have hit on a fairly large raise in that same year at any rate. Wally and Delonte were on the books until after the 08/09 season at a combined $15.7M. Ray Allen, who is currently better than Wally/Delonte, is on the books at $18.8M. This one move doesn’t make the team any worse off financially than had they not done it.
Oh, but what about the Tax Threshold? They would have been skirting this line anyway with Al Jefferson’s contract extension.
Everything hinges on what they do with Theo Ratliff’s ending deal. If they flip his $11.6M for a near-max player that adds another solid, ongoing fixture to this lineup the Ray Allen deal looks like part one of a master plan. If they sit pat then they have not finished the job and at that point the calling for change will be legitimate.
In effect this one trade cannot be fully gauged until the other shoe has dropped.
If anyone was asking me the targets for Ratliff’s contract they would be:
Andrei Kirilenko: With a max deal and with declining numbers AK47 has to be the biggest target. What would make it even sweeter for Utah is if Theo could actually, you know PLAY basketball this season. Utah could rid themselves of serious long term money and free up the capital it will take to care of Deron Williams. They wold also be under the cap for next season to address whatever they consider to be a team need (Ahem–Shooting Guard might be a good place to start!)
Pau Gasol: With Memphis bleeding money and Gasol not exactly thrilled to be in this situation Gasol might be had with just Theo’s contract, depending on how desperate Memphis gets. This isn’t an obvious home for the extra parts it may take to get Gasol now that Delonte West is in Seattle.
Marcus Camby: Sure the man brought new meaning to the nickname Mister Glass but when healthy he is a great rebounder and weakside shot blocker. Denver would probably dangle Kenyon Martin but no one not named Isiah would touch him coming off of microfracture surgery and especially with his game predicated on his athleticism.
Troy Murphy: You will read about Jermaine O’Neal but understand that Danny Ainge and J.O. do not get along. There would be serious issues unless he could be flipped to a third team (Hello LA–send over Odom please!) Murphy makes sense for Indiana as they have Granger and Diogu that can step up and play PF minutes and they still have O’Neal and Foster.
Al Harrington: This one would be difficult but makes some long term sense to Golden State. They just acquired Brandan Wright and have a slew of similar skilled players. Harrington would make the Celtics front court extremely small.
Mike Bibby: count me among the Rondo believers but if they think he is still a year away they could bring in Bibby. Bibby is on the books for one more year after this and that seems to be how Ainge likes to do business-extend the expiring contract out a little to work the angles a bit longer.
Brad Miller: Please, dear God no. If the Celtics took Miller’s contract they better be bringing Shareef with them and getting rid of Scrubaline.
Rasheed Wallace: At 33 count me as a pass on this move which should have happened 3 years ago any way.
Lamar Odom: Only in my dreams does he end up in Boston.
Next, from Mike:
I’m with you, Rich. This trade is a talent and experience upgrade for a team that needs both, for a limited increase in salary obligations (assuming West signs an extension). I can’t understand the critics who say this is a huge change of team philosophy in moving away from the youth movement. West was the only member of the oft-derided “best young talent in the NBA” who was shipped out in this deal. While the 5th pick would have immediately become a youth movement centerpiece, all of the players after the top 3 came with significant holes in their games. Obviously there will be several players who pan out of this draft, but when given the opportunity to pick up a talent like Ray Allen the calculus seems pretty easy from where I am sitting. The chance you take is that Jesus Shuttlesworth shows up with a fork in his back, but I’m not sure that is any riskier than paying Wally to test his ankles out, or drafting Yi in the hopes that his performance on the under-19 national team wasn’t just Kramer dominating the elementary school karate dojo.
Of course as Rich points out this deal did nothing to address the glaring hole at the power forward slot. Perkins and Jefferson showed enough last year to establish themselves as two pieces of a viable big man rotation, but the remaining bigs on the roster all have major shortcomings to their games, be it lack of height, lack of athleticism, or both. On top of that the trade left the team extremely thin at point guard, with Rajon Rondo the starter backed up by Sebastian Telfair (assuming he keeps his nose clean long enough to let the team forget about the tough talk after his latest arrest) and draftee Gabe Pruitt (whom scouts pegged as more of a point guard by default during his college days rather than a natural for the position).
The question then becomes, when does that other shoe drop, and what does it look like? Like anyone else who suffered through last season I want those holes filled yesterday, and with solid veteran talent to boot. But it seems that with the loss of the #5 pick and the continuing unwillingness to deal Jefferson the team probably has lost whatever leverage it may have had to make a deal for a headliner at either position.
So, contrary to my instincts as a fan, I think the team will probably wind up biding its time on the long term fix at either the PG or PF slot. Instead I see them looking for a midlevel exception fix at one slot or the other, in the search for a veteran who is willing to play relatively consistent minutes in a secondary role to the team’s young talent. Think Steve Blake or Brevin Knight at PG, and Joe Smith or Mikki Moore at PF. There could also be smaller trades for better frontline talent, like Zaza Pachulia from Atlanta.
While this kind of patience will be frustrating to some (including myself, I am sure) it may make all the difference in the end. First of all, Theo Ratliff himself would be a great upgrade for the team’s interior defense, so it may not be so bad to give him a month or two during the season to see if he can make even a little bit of a contribution. Never underestimate the power of a contract year to get a guy out of the 5-button pinstripe suits and onto the floor. But if Theo’s injuries continue to sideline him his contract will just get more valuable as the year goes on, especially if talented players in bad situations continue to muddle around (Mr. Kirilenko, please pick up the green courtesy phone).
Similarly some of the Celtics’ other trade chips like Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green will benefit from another summer of development and/or rehab, as the case may be. It obviously would benefit the team to take advantage of any gains in marketability by these players if they are to be traded, rather than dealing them out prior to seeing what another year of experience has done for their games.
It will take guts to take the floor on opening day with this roster, after the team and its fans have let it be known that the rebuilding era is no longer welcome. Everyone sees the ticking clock behind the two max-salary players now employed by the team, so it’s a tightrope between winning now as best they can and finding the perfect piece to contend for the now-devalued eastern conference championship. The sense the team’s leadership gives is that it hears and understands the fans when they say it’s no longer OK to make excuses. The way they handle the next few transactions will go a long way to showing how true that is.
(Finally, another word about Tony Allen. As this deal thinned out the two prime competitors with him for wing minutes, the spotlight will be on him. Obviously Ray Allen and Pierce will be the starters at the wing slots, but if the TA of the month prior to his injury was not a mirage then this team will benefit greatly from him stepping up and asserting himself as the third man in the wing rotation, bringing defense and tenacity to a unit that generally lacks those qualities. In addition, Doc Rivers has often said that Allen’s unique defensive abilities make him indispensable for the smallball units that Rivers has always employed. Depending on who else comes in after this deal I think we may see a lot of Tony Allen playing with both Ray Allen and Pierce at the same time, a nod to the success of the smallball teams in Phoenix and Golden State over the past few years. Even staid San Antonio used a smaller lineup to good success on the way to its championship this year, so it is becoming clear that this needs to be part of a versatile team’s repertoire. Should be interesting to watch.)