Save the Odds for the Vegas Wiseguys: A Chill Pill for the Kingmakers and Naysayers Alike
By Mike Martin
After two years of wandering in the NBA desert, the Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett trades were the basketball version of a tropical oasis for the Celtics. I would have expected the thirsty fans to pause for refreshment, maybe a change of clothes (a #5 jersey, perhaps) before doing anything else. Instead everyone from fans to bloggers to sportswriters seemed to jump right into the Budweiser Hot Seat, anxious to give their snap assessment of the team’s ceiling and thus the value of the bold moves by Danny Ainge and Celtics ownership.
Now that would be all well and good in the natural order of things, except that it’s August. No games to play. No defense to solidify. No chemistry to develop. From where I’ve been sitting, it’s all seemed a little premature. The funny thing was, even when someone like the usually estimable Bob Ryan tried to point this out, he went way too far in the other direction, demanding Hall of Famers and All-Stars in complementary roles before he would give this team his blessing.
So this column will have none of that. No predictions of playoff positioning. No estimates of how long the Trio Grande will be able to play at the highest level. Instead we’ll look ahead at the task at hand for the Celtics, the newest member of TNT’s national TV schedule.
I hate to borrow a bit of wisdom from baseball of all places but the diamond wisdom of taking the first two months of the season to see what you have, the second two months to get what you need by trade or else from within, and the last two months of the season put it all together for the playoffs has a lot in common with the NBA. While it would be nice, not to mention extremely enjoyable, for the Celtics to blow through the regular season with the best record in the league, that is not the point here. As Dallas showed last year, the point is to enter the playoffs playing your best ball.
Bearing that in mind, this regular season becomes less of a sprint and more of a shakedown cruise for the new-look Celtics. Of most visible importance is the need to build chemistry among the three stars who are used to leading their respective clubs. However, as many have observed, the emergence of supporting players in important roles from point guard to center will go just as far in determining how dangerous this Celtics team can be in the playoffs.
This weekend’s signing of James Posey reflects this evolutionary process. Ainge had already gone public with his courtship of the long-retired Reggie Miller, whose shooting ability and veteran know-how could have been a boon for a team short on both aside from the three stars. However, when Miller decided to ground his comeback bid before it started, Ainge immediately saw an opportunity to upgrade the team’s defense and athleticism at both wing positions with Posey.
While Miller may have been a helpful bench player from a chemistry standpoint, the addition of Posey helps in more on-court ways. He brings a brand of defensive toughness that is not matched by any of the Celtics’ other wing players, at least until Tony Allen returns to his pre-injury form. Posey’s three point range has to be respected, but more importantly he is known for making hustle plays and generally being a poster child for Doc Rivers’ beloved “energy is a skill” post-game interview line.
I think the big lesson to take from this is the need for the team to retain roster flexibility. They had retained a healthy portion of their midlevel exception after the flurry of post-trade fill-in signings. Then Ainge waited several weeks and passed on many perceived “need” players like Brevin Knight and Adonal Foyle, and for his trouble landed a solid bench contributor who has had recent experience playing that same role for a veteran-studded NBA champion.
This is a prime example of making the most of an opportunity when it’s there. While the Celtics no longer has salary cap availability to sign free agents of Posey’s caliber, they should always keep their eyes open for ways to exchange perceived depth for upgrades at need positions. The trick for the front office is to identify where that depth lies, and what new piece can contribute the right ingredient to the team recipe.
Aside from the front office’s manipulations of the roster, the team’s success will also come down to the team and coaching staff’s ability to blend the ingredients into a productive whole. A case in point is Kendrick Perkins.
With the Garnett trade, Perkins was thrust from relative obscurity as a developing young big man on a lottery team to a starting spot on a playoff contender. It pretty much goes without saying that Perkins’ success will be measured by how well he can learn to team with Garnett to solidify the team’s historically porous interior defense.
Over the course of last year Perkins battled his way through a nagging plantar fascia injury to become one of the team’s more consistent defenders. While at times the team’s protection of Al Jefferson left Perkins with the tougher big man cover on the defensive end, he battled even when he was (mis)matched with quicker power forwards like Dirk Nowitzki and yes, Garnett himself. In fact, after the Celtics played the Timberwolves in Minnesota last February, the following quote appeared in Steve Bulpett’s Celtics notebook:
“Kendrick Perkins may still be slowed by his sore left foot, but he hasn’t lost any of his fight. He had 11 points and five boards in 26 minutes of the 109-107 loss to the Timberwolves, and spent some time on Kevin Garnett, who was forced into some tough shots on his way to 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
Asked about covering Garnett, Perk said, “It’s a challenge, but that isn’t really what it is. It’s a challenge, but he’s still kind of overrated in my opinion. He’s a great player, but at the same time we all strap up our shoes the same way. Not taking nothing from him, but I play basketball like he plays basketball.”
So, to recap the bidding, Garnett drops a triple double on Perk in a game the Wolves won, and Perk calls him overrated. Not exactly throwing bouquets at each other, were they?
I suppose this quote (and the Garnett trash talk which undoubtedly set the stage for it) could cause some bad blood between two NBA-level egos, especially if an enterprising reporter tries to lob that comment in like a grenade on the first day of training camp. But I take more solace in Perkins’ “I play basketball like he plays basketball” line. The competitive fire of these two players will make this a successful partnership.
Perkins still is not the most graceful player out there, but the experience he gained last year will make for a mobile set of big defenders, a luxury the team has not had in years. And now, instead of Perkins trying to impart some defensive leadership on an immature team, he can become one cog among other veteran defenders like Garnett and Posey. (and Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine, for that matter.)
I say this not to point out why this team may fail. Instead, it’s to illustrate how much work is left to be done. Teams are forged in the crucible of the season. The team has eight-two games to create its new identity in terms of players and roles. It will take at least that long to gain an understanding of what has been set in motion by this summer’s trades.
Oddly enough, this task seems perfect for the much-maligned Doc Rivers. Though in the past he may have been infuriatingly slow to identify an effective rotation of players, he does seem to have the personal communications skills to get a variety of players (and personalities) to buy into the team effort. His work with Paul Pierce in his first season was impressive in this way, teaching a player who had had a free reign under the prior coach to play within a system. Now Rivers will have that same task, multiplied by three, along with the continuing need to develop young players and break them into a contender’s rotation. It’s time for him to back up his own words from the past: “When I’ve had the players, I’ve won.”
Eight-two games may seem like a lot, but the clock will be ticking right from the opening tip of preseason. I feel refreshed just at the thought of it.