Save the Odds for the Vegas Wiseguys: A Chill Pill for the Kingmakers and Naysayers Alike

By Mike Martin

After two years of wandering in the NBA desert, the Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett trades were the basketball version of a tropical oasis for the Celtics. I would have expected the thirsty fans to pause for refreshment, maybe a change of clothes (a #5 jersey, perhaps) before doing anything else. Instead everyone from fans to bloggers to sportswriters seemed to jump right into the Budweiser Hot Seat, anxious to give their snap assessment of the team’s ceiling and thus the value of the bold moves by Danny Ainge and Celtics ownership.

Now that would be all well and good in the natural order of things, except that it’s August. No games to play. No defense to solidify. No chemistry to develop. From where I’ve been sitting, it’s all seemed a little premature. The funny thing was, even when someone like the usually estimable Bob Ryan tried to point this out, he went way too far in the other direction, demanding Hall of Famers and All-Stars in complementary roles before he would give this team his blessing.

So this column will have none of that. No predictions of playoff positioning. No estimates of how long the Trio Grande will be able to play at the highest level. Instead we’ll look ahead at the task at hand for the Celtics, the newest member of TNT’s national TV schedule.

I hate to borrow a bit of wisdom from baseball of all places but the diamond wisdom of taking the first two months of the season to see what you have, the second two months to get what you need by trade or else from within, and the last two months of the season put it all together for the playoffs has a lot in common with the NBA. While it would be nice, not to mention extremely enjoyable, for the Celtics to blow through the regular season with the best record in the league, that is not the point here. As Dallas showed last year, the point is to enter the playoffs playing your best ball.

Bearing that in mind, this regular season becomes less of a sprint and more of a shakedown cruise for the new-look Celtics. Of most visible importance is the need to build chemistry among the three stars who are used to leading their respective clubs. However, as many have observed, the emergence of supporting players in important roles from point guard to center will go just as far in determining how dangerous this Celtics team can be in the playoffs.

This weekend’s signing of James Posey reflects this evolutionary process. Ainge had already gone public with his courtship of the long-retired Reggie Miller, whose shooting ability and veteran know-how could have been a boon for a team short on both aside from the three stars. However, when Miller decided to ground his comeback bid before it started, Ainge immediately saw an opportunity to upgrade the team’s defense and athleticism at both wing positions with Posey.

While Miller may have been a helpful bench player from a chemistry standpoint, the addition of Posey helps in more on-court ways. He brings a brand of defensive toughness that is not matched by any of the Celtics’ other wing players, at least until Tony Allen returns to his pre-injury form. Posey’s three point range has to be respected, but more importantly he is known for making hustle plays and generally being a poster child for Doc Rivers’ beloved “energy is a skill” post-game interview line.

I think the big lesson to take from this is the need for the team to retain roster flexibility. They had retained a healthy portion of their midlevel exception after the flurry of post-trade fill-in signings. Then Ainge waited several weeks and passed on many perceived “need” players like Brevin Knight and Adonal Foyle, and for his trouble landed a solid bench contributor who has had recent experience playing that same role for a veteran-studded NBA champion.

This is a prime example of making the most of an opportunity when it’s there. While the Celtics no longer has salary cap availability to sign free agents of Posey’s caliber, they should always keep their eyes open for ways to exchange perceived depth for upgrades at need positions. The trick for the front office is to identify where that depth lies, and what new piece can contribute the right ingredient to the team recipe.

Aside from the front office’s manipulations of the roster, the team’s success will also come down to the team and coaching staff’s ability to blend the ingredients into a productive whole. A case in point is Kendrick Perkins.

With the Garnett trade, Perkins was thrust from relative obscurity as a developing young big man on a lottery team to a starting spot on a playoff contender. It pretty much goes without saying that Perkins’ success will be measured by how well he can learn to team with Garnett to solidify the team’s historically porous interior defense.

Over the course of last year Perkins battled his way through a nagging plantar fascia injury to become one of the team’s more consistent defenders. While at times the team’s protection of Al Jefferson left Perkins with the tougher big man cover on the defensive end, he battled even when he was (mis)matched with quicker power forwards like Dirk Nowitzki and yes, Garnett himself. In fact, after the Celtics played the Timberwolves in Minnesota last February, the following quote appeared in Steve Bulpett’s Celtics notebook:

“Kendrick Perkins may still be slowed by his sore left foot, but he hasn’t lost any of his fight. He had 11 points and five boards in 26 minutes of the 109-107 loss to the Timberwolves, and spent some time on Kevin Garnett, who was forced into some tough shots on his way to 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.

Asked about covering Garnett, Perk said, “It’s a challenge, but that isn’t really what it is. It’s a challenge, but he’s still kind of overrated in my opinion. He’s a great player, but at the same time we all strap up our shoes the same way. Not taking nothing from him, but I play basketball like he plays basketball.”

So, to recap the bidding, Garnett drops a triple double on Perk in a game the Wolves won, and Perk calls him overrated. Not exactly throwing bouquets at each other, were they?

I suppose this quote (and the Garnett trash talk which undoubtedly set the stage for it) could cause some bad blood between two NBA-level egos, especially if an enterprising reporter tries to lob that comment in like a grenade on the first day of training camp. But I take more solace in Perkins’ “I play basketball like he plays basketball” line. The competitive fire of these two players will make this a successful partnership.

Perkins still is not the most graceful player out there, but the experience he gained last year will make for a mobile set of big defenders, a luxury the team has not had in years. And now, instead of Perkins trying to impart some defensive leadership on an immature team, he can become one cog among other veteran defenders like Garnett and Posey. (and Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine, for that matter.)

I say this not to point out why this team may fail. Instead, it’s to illustrate how much work is left to be done. Teams are forged in the crucible of the season. The team has eight-two games to create its new identity in terms of players and roles. It will take at least that long to gain an understanding of what has been set in motion by this summer’s trades.

Oddly enough, this task seems perfect for the much-maligned Doc Rivers. Though in the past he may have been infuriatingly slow to identify an effective rotation of players, he does seem to have the personal communications skills to get a variety of players (and personalities) to buy into the team effort. His work with Paul Pierce in his first season was impressive in this way, teaching a player who had had a free reign under the prior coach to play within a system. Now Rivers will have that same task, multiplied by three, along with the continuing need to develop young players and break them into a contender’s rotation. It’s time for him to back up his own words from the past: “When I’ve had the players, I’ve won.”

Eight-two games may seem like a lot, but the clock will be ticking right from the opening tip of preseason. I feel refreshed just at the thought of it.

Cakes are Cooking for the Celtics - a Random Thoughts Thinkpiece

By Matt Richardson

Wow. There certainly is a lot going on, isn’t there? First, with regards to my previous post, in the immortal words of .38 Special, “please forgive me, and forget it, I was wrong and I admit it”. I speculated that the C’s were not committed to making another impact move after the Ray Allen trade. I wasn’t exactly, ummm, on target with that one. And you know what? I couldn’t be happier. I very much wanted to be wrong (and to think I only had my sights set on Marcus Camby). Anyway, the C’s have made a very bold move and have re-energized an entire fan base. I for one am tremendously excited to see how this will all play out, and I’m certainly not going to pull a Borges and pick apart the Garnett trade to validate my previous position. Kudos to the C’s brass for making it happen.

Second, a couple of thoughts on Rondo and Perkins. What a position to suddenly find themselves in, default starters on a team variously ticketed to the playoffs, the Eastern Conference Finals, and even the NBA finals. The way I see it though, these guys are in very different situations. Perk, to me, is in a no lose situation. His name was never bandied about in trade talks, and certainly no trades that I’m aware of broke down or hit a snag due to the Celtics unwillingness to part with their “Center of the future”. Heading into his 5th year, Perk is faced with extremely low expectations. Rebound. Play defense. Throw his body around. That is pretty much it. The upside there is huge. He should be able to do the above, but in addition to that, can you imagine how many easy looks he is going to get down low when the defense collapses on Garnett in the post or Pierce and Rondo on drives? How many uncontested dunks is he looking at a game? 4? 7? Not to mention easy offensive rebounds/putbacks. I would not be surprised at all to be reading a “Kendrick Perkins: The Overnight Success” feature come January.

Rondo, on the other hand, faces considerably tougher sledding. First, he was declared all but untouchable by Danny Ainge. No pressure there. Second, while Perk is flying very much under the radar, Rondo enjoys no such anonymity. It’s up to him to make sure the offense hums along efficiently, and oh by the way live up to his reputation as a defensive stopper on the other end of the floor. If this team isn’t clicking offensively after 3-4 weeks, a lot of people are going to be looking at Rondo and suggesting he isn’t up to the task; shades of Dustin Pedroia during the first 3-4 weeks of the Sox season. Turned out OK for Pedroia, lets hope for the same from Rondo.

Finally, with the recent spate of oldsters coming back or considering comebacks (Penny Hardaway, Reggie Miller, Allan Houston), I’ve been busy chasing down some rumors:

Rumor has it that Glenn Robinson would like to ply his wares with the C’s. He purportedly is working out in Indiana and feels his potent mid-range jumper could be a big help to the team. Unfortunately his workouts at this point consist entirely of him trying to dunk over Greg Ostertag. I’m told progress is slow, and until he puts one down over his former Jayhawk poster boy he can’t deem himself ready for a return.

With the well documented need for a veteran PG, several guys think they may be the right man for the job. Charlie Ward, for example, can’t do any of the things that Rondo can’t do, but he is experienced and could double as the Patriots emergency QB if Gutierrez doesn’t work out and Testaverde gets diagnosed with osteoporosis. Nick Van Exel has been quoted as saying he’s 10 times better than Eddie House and his intangibles (leadership, unselfishness, emotional stability) are off the charts. Edgar Padilla would like to remind everyone that he was the PG for the “best backcourt in the country” the year after Camby left UMass. Come to think of it, maybe Carmelo Travieso could push Tony Allen for backup SG minutes.

And one last thought: Any veteran team with playoff aspirations needs glue guys, veterans who do the little things, know their roles and foster good team chemistry. Danny Ainge clearly foresaw the developments of 2007 when he signed Brian Scalabrine in 2005. Scal is the ultimate glue guy, useless on a bad team but (hopefully) invaluable on a good team. And who knows if he would’ve been available again, so Danny looks awfully savvy locking him up long term 2 years ago when he had the chance. At the time I had no idea why Ainge made this move, but it looks positively inspired now. Yet another reason why Danny Ainge is an NBA executive and I am not.

In the Distance, a Sea of Pink Hats

By Kevin Henkin

Let’s face it. As Celtics fans, we’ve been spoiled this summer. Our team is on the map again and it’s been downright giddifying to watch the complete roster overhaul unfold before our very eyes. Instead of idle speculation on whether this is the year “the kids” realize their collective potential, we’ve elevated the debate to exactly how far this new team can roll in the playoffs. This is all good news, right? On the most obvious level, of course it is. Then again, there are some minor downsides to success. I present to you, as Exhibit A, the pending arrival of The Pink Hat Brigade.

Yes, yes, I know this has been covered before but I contend that this is a relatively new experience for Celtics fans. Not since the Eastern Conference Finals against New Jersey in 2002 have real Celtics fans been faced with the challenge of bandwagoners and socialites arriving en masse to steal their seats away. While you were still watching the games during the 18 game losing streak, desperately trying to glean signs of hope and progress in your core of young players, these people were scheming which Red Sox games to incorporate into their spring and summer social calendars.

Understand, I’m not a total snob. I don’t demand that the person sitting next to me knows which hand Delonte West and Al Jefferson need to work on to improve their respective games but I do expect them to have, you know, some level of appreciation for the game. The good news is that some will have it, based on their prior experience as Celtics fans in better days. Sadly, others will not. In preparing for the upcoming season, I present to you this handy guide for determining each individual subspecies of the “New Celtics Fans” that you can expect to encounter going forward:

The Crusty Historians

These are the guys that filled the smelly old Garden back in the eighties and haven’t been back since. Nothing short of an exact cloning of Bird, McHale and Parish will impress them. Initially intrigued by all the hooplah, they’ll use their accumulated wealth and influence to land some prime courtside real estate. Eventually, however, they’ll come to the conclusion that “the game has changed” and “all these guys care about is dunking the ball” before they go back from whence they came.

Expect to hear comments like: “In my day, they passed the ball and didn’t go for all this showboating stuff” and “Whadaya mean, there’s no smoking?”

The Actual Pink Hatters

They may or may not be wearing a pink hat emblazoned with a shamrock but they are all sisters in spirit. Whether or not they serve as a positive influence on the atmosphere as a whole is worthy of its own debate that I’ll mercifully set aside for now. On the plus side, at least they cheer lustily when the Jumbotron instructs them to do so.

Expect to hear comments like: “Oooh, check out that cute guy in the sweater vest two rows down!” and “Does my hair look okay?”

The Shameless Frontrunners

These folks don’t like or dislike basketball per se or the Celtics in particular. They do, however, like winners. They like the fact that they’re going to a game where tickets were hard to come by, therefore making it a destination event worthy of bragging about to their buddies. They like the experience of getting swept up in the euphoria. They pretend that they’ve been there all along. I suppose all of these are somewhat understandable emotions. Everyone likes a winner, right? It doesn’t matter. I hate them anyway. Regardless, they go with the territory of having a good team. Just ask the long-term die hard Patriots fans.

Expect to hear comments like: “Ha ha, yeah dude, we are so awesome!” and “Let’s get ourselves on the Jumbotron again!”

The Gregarious Sales Hosts

In recent years, Celtics games haven’t provided much of an attractive venue for business generators wooing their clients. As a result, many tickets appear to have gone largely unused based on the number of open seats we’ve seen in the lower bowl of the Garden. Those days appear to be over. Because their seats essentially serve as a sales platform, these attendees are hardly considered dedicated observers of the game. Nonetheless, their hefty admission prices contribute a long way towards paying the salaries of Garnett, Pierce and Allen so their increased presence is begrudgingly welcome.

Expect to hear questions like: “Boy, who’s that little guy with the huge hands?” and “Now, which one is Garnett?”

Individual tickets will go on sale soon. Many of those tickets will go to the folks detailed above. Be afraid, Celtics fans. Be very afraid.

An Open Letter to the Wet Blankets

By Kevin Henkin

In the wake of the Kevin Garnett trade, the reaction of a pocket of fans (and perhaps a certain high-profile writer at the Boston Globe) reminds me of an old Henny Youngman joke, which goes as follows:

A grandmother is at the Florida coast with her grandson. The grandson is playing on the beach when a big wave washes him the kid out to sea. The lifeguards swim out, bring him back to shore, the paramedics work on him for a long time, pumping the water out, reviving him. They then turn to the grandmother and say, “We saved your grandson.” The grandmother looks down and says, “He had a hat!”

For the people who have been complaining loudly about the lack of bench depth before Danny Ainge has even had a chance to finish assembling his roster, I recommend you forget about the damn hat for a moment and try to put things in perspective. Try to remember where the Celtics were and have been for far too long before casting your wet blanket on the euphoria.

Your Boston Celtics were a woeful assembly of excessive youth and injury-prone veterans last year and it would have been unreasonable to expect much better from them this upcoming season.

As an aside, said prominent Globe sportswriter once called the 2003 version of the Celtics “a team for people who hate basketball”. Well, I happen to love basketball but one thing I despise is watching three-quarters of the roster of my favorite NBA team learn how to play professional basketball while on the job. It’s tiresome, maddening and eventually moves beyond frustration. If you claim to enjoy observing that sort of thing eighty-two times a year, then I submit that it is you who hates basketball. But I digress.

Getting back on point, perhaps if Paul Pierce was to remain healthy, maybe the Celtics would have cracked the thirty win mark by a few games this year but the playoffs would have likely remained a pipedream. That is, unless the rest of the Eastern Conference was truly bad enough to admit such a deeply flawed team among its top eight. Either way, big deal. Is that what these people are pining for?

“No!” they’ll correct you with a high degree of indignation, instead claiming that by making the Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett trades, the Celtics have sacrificed “The Future”. Ah yes, I see. Is that the future where too many of the young players had contracts expiring within a short window of time, thus making it highly unlikely that all of best of them could be retained? Or was it the future where Al Jefferson learns how to play defense, Gerald Green becomes Tracy McGrady, Yi Jianlian becomes the next Dirk Nowitzki and Delonte West evolves into a combo guard able to master the point and knock down jumpers against bigger shooting guard defenders? West and Ryan Gomes were undeniably valuable, but only as role players. You don’t build your roster around role players. Of the players lost, only Jefferson was the proverbial “sure thing” as a high impact player and losing him was a necessary sacrifice to obtain Garnett, who is not merely a good player. He’s a GREAT player.

For those that criticize Ainge for suddenly abandoning his youth movement, you haven’t been paying attention. Building around a foundation of youth was never his intention. Rather, the master plan has always been to collect the necessary chips to convert them into high quality veteran players. The only question was whether he could actually pull it off. He did. His core trio of veterans is scary good and now his remaining task is to round out the supporting cast. If he fails in that endeavor, feel free to lob your grenades at will.

Meanwhile, to complain about the bottom eight players is quite simply premature. Additionally, to snicker about the Eddie House signing or insinuate that Brevin Knight isn’t an upgrade over Rajon Rondo makes no sense. Knight isn’t supposed to be an upgrade over Rondo. He’s a stabilizing veteran presence at the point, a floor general who knows how to distribute the ball and drive when appropriate. In essence, he is exactly what he’s supposed to be and the Celtics would clearly be a better team by landing his services. So it goes with Eddie House. Sure, he’s a liability on defense. If he was a fully rounded player, he wouldn’t have been available. That’s why he’s designated as a role player. He’s supposed to come off the bench and shoot well enough to score more points that he gives up. Regardless, his presence adds depth and experience to the roster. This is a good thing.

Understand, I agree that the Celtics still have needs and how well those needs are addressed may make all the difference in the world come playoff time. But make no mistake; this team is making the playoffs, with one hand tied behind their collective backs. It’s not even a question. In the meantime, let’s see how the rest of the off-season goes before bemoaning the sacrifice of the future or lampooning the team’s chances as a legitimate title contender.