Durant or Oden (or gulp…neither)

Durant or Oden (or gulp…neither)

This Celtics season has been a paradox in many ways. The team has struggled to one of the worst seasons in franchise history, including a record-setting losing streak in the middle of the year.

Despite all the losing, interest in the team has been much higher than you might expect this season. There have been good crowds at almost every home game, and the Celtics have been a topic of sports radio more often than at any time in recent memory.

The reason of course, is that many fans feel there is a light at the end of the tunnel. They’ve seen progress in the development of players such as Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, and (before he was hurt) Tony Allen. Jefferson is becoming a double-double machine, and has already become the best low post option the Celtics have had since the days of Kevin McHale. (Sorry, Dino Radja.) Green, while inconsistent, has shown flashes of being the athletic scoring machine sidekick to Paul Pierce, and Allen was on his way to his own breakthrough campaign as a defensive stopper and slashing offensive threat.

Beyond those players, there is the bigger picture. Through their lack of success this season, the Celtics have positioned themselves to be in the running for one of the top two picks in this year’s NBA draft. Unlike the last couple of years, there are potentially players available who could take a franchise to another level. Celtics fans have been hearing the names of Greg Oden and Kevin Durant daily since December. Both players are just freshman in college, but both are expected to be only in college for one year, due to the NBA’s new rule about minimum age requirements. Some disagree with this view, (Michael Holley of WEEI says that he believes that there is only a 25% chance that Oden will leave school after this season.) but most believe that at the very least one of the two will be available come June.

The Celtics have the second worst record in the league, and do not appear to have much of a chance to overtake Memphis for the most number of ping pong balls in the NBA draft lottery. Thus, they’re likely to have the second-best odds to grab the top pick. If both players come out this spring, the Celtics stand a pretty good chance of getting at least one of them. However, we’ve seen the cruel bounces that ping-pong balls can take. (Think 15-67 in 1997 and still no Tim Duncan.)

However, lets be optimistic and say that both players do come out, and the Celtics do get one of the top two picks in the draft. I don’t believe in jinxes, so if something bad happens with the Celtics draft position, don’t blame me…

If the Celtics get Greg Oden:

Expectations are going to be sky-high for both Oden and the team. I have a feeling however, that there are going to be some growing pains. First, Oden is going to bring a defensive presence to the Celtics. Kendrick Perkins is a physical force in the paint, but he’s not a top shot blocker. Oden will bring the intimidation of being able to make the opponents think twice before challenging him in the paint. His offensive game is still pretty raw, but you see the potential there with his hook shots, especially when you considered he’s been playing with an injured right wrist all season.

The problem Oden is going to run into in the pros initially is the same issue that he has had all season and during the NCAA tournament - foul trouble. He might have a problem staying on the court - something that plagued Al Jefferson in seasons prior to this one. That’s something that probably only time and experience is going to improve.

Oden will make an impact in the NBA in his first year, there’s no doubt about it, but he’s not going to be able to make the Celtics a contender in his first season. Speaking in terms of raw skills, he will be the most talented pure center to enter the league in a number of years. His potential to be a possible franchise center down the road make him an easy number one pick…but there will be a period of growth and some frustration along the line.

Picturing Oden in the middle with Al Jefferson at his side, with Gerald Green and Paul Pierce on the wings and Rajon Rondo running the point is a group that would be very fun to watch develop over the next couple of years.

If the Celtics get Kevin Durant:

Kevin Durant has exploded on the college scene this season. He has drawn comparisons to Pete Maravich in terms of sheer offensive domination. (Not style of play) Durant can shoot and score from all over the court, handle the ball, and rebound with the best of them.

His body might not be quite NBA yet. His skinny frame is going to take a beating from larger, stronger, more mature players at the next level. However, he’s going to be able to step right into the league and contribute right away.

Where would be play in the NBA? His skills right now are more of a small forward style, though his rebounding is that of a big man. Were he to come to the Celtics, it might take some time to really find the right position and role for him. Does he play the small forward, pushing Gerald Green to the bench or out as trade bait? Does he cause Al Jefferson to remain at center and play the power forward spot and cause a wing trio of Durant, Green and Pierce that is going to have opponents running all over the court to cover the open shooters?

That’s also a fun team to imagine.

If the Celtics don’t get either guy:

Banish the thought.

If the Celtics are unable to land one of these two top players, things might get a little ugly around here. Oden and Durant are clearly the two top prospects in the college game, head and shoulders above the rest. If one of the two are not here next season, the owners may decide it is time to go in another direction, and Danny Ainge and/or Doc Rivers may be finding themselves out of work.

There are several other players that might choose to enter the draft and they could be very good NBA players. The names of Brandon Wright, Roy Hibbert, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Jeff Green are all players who could be looked at in the early stages of the first round. If the Celtics don’t get Oden or Durant, they may choose to trade their draft pick for an established veteran and try to improve their team that way. In fact, at this point, that’s the direction I’m leaning in. If they don’t get Oden or Durant, try to swing a trade. The team is young enough, and unless you’re getting a potential franchise player, it’s time to add some veteran experience to this young team.

In any event, the Celtics are going to remain a topic of conversation well into June this year, even after the team finishes their season on April 18.