FCP Roundtable #2: A Look Ahead at the Celtics
Moderated by Dan
Another season is upon us, and the only thing we know about the 2006-07 Boston Celtics is that they are a very difficult team to assess because of their youth. We know they have a ton of athleticism and young talent on the roster, but the goal is more than collecting talent. The goal is to build a cohesive team (ok, the Patriots came up with that motto, not me). How will all of these ingredients mesh? Will they show the same shortcomings we saw last year; lack of discipline on defense, and a turnover approximately every thirty seconds? Or, will they become more consistent and be the team that for quarters here and there played the best basketball seen by Boston fans since the early 90s.
One thing is for sure, this is the year things need to start coming together for the Ainge/Rivers brigade. You can only hang your hat on good drafts and players with upside for so long before it needs to start translating on the floor…Anyway, on to the round table.
The Celtics announced their final two roster moves, opting to waive Luke Jackson and Brian Grant. What are your thoughts on the final 15, and specifically the decision to keep Allen Ray over Luke Jackson?
Mark: Count me as the treasurer of the “Why is Allen Ray Still On This Team??” Society. Luke Jackson is looking like a draft bust at this point, but at least he accomplished something for the Cs (11 points in 21 minutes in 4 games). Allen Ray has appeared in 8 games with 3.6 ppg in over 10 minutes on average. Granted, Allen Ray was a heck of a player in college, but the last thing this Celtics team needs is a guy at the end of the bench who is a long-range project, particularly in the SG spot. Luke Jackson is a flawed player, but you now essentially gave up Dwayne Jones, who did very nicely in meaningless ’06 and Summer League games, for nothing. I guess I don’t see Danny Ainge’s logic here.
Tom: Luke Jackson? I was disappointed that they did not keep Kevin Pittsnoggle. His interpretation of the NBA dress code would have would have guaranteed at least a half season full of laughs.
It really doesn’t matter who they should have kept. The fact is that the Celtics would be in big trouble if they had to rely on either one to make a key contribution this year. But since you are asking, I will say I agree with the decision to keep Ray. He can go to NBDL and work on his game. He could also provide some long term insurance come the trade deadline. More on that later…
Dan: First of all, I thought keeping Ray over Jackson a no-brainer. Although the team’s cup is overflowing with small guards, Ray is the perfect versatile player to step in to either guard spot and play should there be an injury or trade. Jackson can shoot, but it looked like he could do little else in the limited time I watched him play. Besides, the league is littered with players described as a poor man’s Fred Hoiberg.
Other than that in regard to the roster, I am glad Powe made the team, but I have no idea how he will get minutes without the words “Development League” being attached.
Is there a set 9 or 10 man rotation that will work for this team, if so, what should it be in your opinion?
Dan: In general, I am a big believer in a set rotation. But for a team this young, it’s tough to decide who is playing what kind of role when almost every player involved is incredibly inconsistent. I think a four man rotation of guards (Pierce, West, Rondo, Telfair) will work, with Pierce also getting some minutes in the 3 spot. Szczerbiak and Tony Allen will also see some minutes there, with Gomes, Jefferson, Perkins, and Ratliff splitting time at the 4 and 5. Ideally, it would be nice to see Jefferson get 25-30 minutes a night, but he needs to earn those minutes by playing with consistent intensity. If Ratliff can stay healthy, it is going to be at the expense of Kendrick Perkins getting minutes (and dumb fouls where he makes a face like someone mistakenly accused him of farting).
Mark:
Starters: Telfair, Pierce, Szczerbiak, Gomes, Perkins.
Bench: Rondo, West, Green, Jefferson, Ratliff
My logic is this: Other than PG, the 4 starters should be set in stone. There may be some nights you want to start Rondo because of his stellar defensive skills (i.e. any start against the Nets, Suns or Kings). But, regardless of who starts at PG, the minutes should roughly be 50/50 Telfair/Rondo with a fraction of minutes being given to Delonte or, God forbid, Tony Allen.
Pierce and {a seemingly healthy} Wally are “no-brainers”. I know that the Full Court Press faithful will consider it heresy to pencil in Gomes above Jefferson, but in my mind Gomes is a plow-horse while Jefferson is a thoroughbred. Yeah, you could get your plowing done faster with “a” Jefferson, but you might wind up with a lot less shotgun shells and more glue than you can use.
Perk is going to be seeing large minutes at Center until Ratliff can get himself back where he needs to be. Ratliff is an interesting “crunch time” guy defensively for the C’s, I could see him on the floor for a large percentage of those 2-8 point games with 2 minutes left.
From the Bench, I think Rondo is going to be a maniac, and he is going to give some PGs nightmares on the defensive end. If he can build on his nice offensive preseason, we the Green might be ruling this kid a draft-day steal at the end of the season.
I think Delonte West is going to be a monster coming of the bench, mostly as a SG but occasionally at PG (i.e. any time Jameer Nelson is in the game for Orlando). His energy has proven to be infectious, and I love him on the second team. I think he will play the Ricky Davis role of ’06-’07 bench. Know this (tm @1997 Peter Gammons), Delonte West will kill several teams with his outside shot during this season. Think Milt Palacio circa 2000-2001.
Tom: I don’t think there currently is a set 9 or 10 man rotation. I think a lot depends on the health of Theo Ratliff and what, if anything he can do for the front court. At this point, my 10 man rotation would work this way: Pierce 40-42 minutes, Wally 25-30 minutes, West 30 minutes, Gomes 30 minutes, Telfair 25 minutes , Rondo 15-20 minutes, Perkins 25-30 minutes, Jefferson 20-25 minutes, Allen 6-8 minutes, and Gerald Green 6-8 minutes. Allen and Green would ideally by used in offense/defense situations, depending on the score. Of course this rotation falls apart when Perkins and or Jefferson get into foul trouble. Which brings us back to Ratliff or Olowokandi…
The team announced it was picking up its option of the final year of Tony Allen’s Contract. What are your thoughts on this move, on Allen’s place and future with this team?
Tom: I think the jury is still out on Allen, in more ways in one. I’m trying to decide which FSNE guy would use this as their answer. I’ve narrowed it down between Allen Greenburg and Bill Burt. I would have thrown Tom Curran into the fray but the other night he managed to utilize the term “wet-nurse” while keeping a straight face. And yes, I’m still reeling from this.
I think it’s a low risk move to pick up his option and I honestly have no idea what his future is on this team. He is probably still their best one on one defender, at least until the refs stop giving Rondo the rookie treatment. However, I can’t see him with this team long term if Rondo is as advertised and Gerald Green learns that defense isn’t just a crowd chant.
Dan: Tony Allen has a hard time dribbling (unless you count the ball bouncing off his hip and advancing up the floor with him), can’t shoot jump shots, and sometimes commits silly fouls. I think all of these things about him almost every game I watch him play, but yet, he has these flashes where he somehow can get to the rim through big time traffic and either dunk or at least get to the line. He can play good, physical defense when he moves his feet (this was hindered by the knee last year), and is a solid defensive rebounder. You can see how he will be a valuable man off the bench when he gets more consistent. So, I am glad they extended him to see what they have. Please though, no more minutes at the point…
Mark: Smart move by the C’s. TA’s legal troubles may or may not be soon be behind him (depending on which rumors you believe), but the smart move was to pick up the option and postpone the actual decision a little longer.
Last year, this team struggled defensively for large stretches in games, particularly defending the pick and roll. Do you see them improving in that area this year?
Mark: I really hate to sound like an up-tempo suckup, but there are few things more overrated in the modern NBA game than defense. Defense counts for about the last 4-8 minutes of most games in the NBA. I would gladly trade this team for the old “Harter-ball” teams. That said, I think these guys will be better defensively in crunch time.
Dan: During this preseason, there still have been stretches where their defense has been downright nauseating. They commit stupid fouls, and the guards leave the big men exposed because they are so easy to beat off the dribble. This is where the oasis in the desert that is Rajon Rondo comes into play. Rondo defended the pick and roll as well as any point guard I have watched this preseason, and he is very difficult to beat off the dribble as well. As much as he should impact the Celtics up tempo offense, I think his defense will be the area he helps the most. Still to be seen of course is if the league officials decide he must be subjected to the automatic “two fouls just for stepping onto the floor” mandate they seem to exercise on most young guards to come into the league.
Tom: It would be really tough to play the pick and roll any worse than last year unless they put Denzel Washington’s character from “Carbon Copy” out there. I think they will struggle initially with this but will improve as the season goes along. Like the end around in football, the pick and roll feasts on inexperienced and undisciplined teams. Clearly, the Celtics fall into both categories at this point. I also believe that the Celtics can do a lot on the offensive end to help dictate tempo and decrease the amount of half court potential pick and roll situations.
Please name the five guys you would like on the court during crunch time, and elaborate on why.
Tom: The interesting thing about this team is that it will depend on the game situation. I know that there are 3 players that I would want at all times. Those three are: Sczerbiak, Pierce, and Gomes. I think these three give the team the best chance to win from an offensive, team defense and overall IQ perspective. The other 2 will really depend on the match up. I also think that Rajon Rondo free throw shooting will have a major impact on the coaching staff’s decision making down the stretch.
Mark: Pierce and Wally – You need guys who can score in a variety of ways.
Delonte West OR Rajon Rondo – Do you need an outside shot or a defender?
Theo Ratliff – Wily veteran who can block a short or pull a board
Ryan Gomes – Can do a little bit of everything.
Dan: I would like to see Ratliff, Jefferson, Pierce, West, and Rondo on the floor during crunch time. This is making the assumption that Ratliff is healthy. Jefferson gives them a low post option that they will need when the game slows down and Pierce is doubled consistently. West is in there to play decent defense, not make dumb mistakes, knock down open jumpers. Rondo is in there for his defense. One other option would be to have Gomes in the game for West (with Pierce playing the 2), depending on the match ups.
If the team decides it needs another veteran near the deadline, who is their most valuable yet expendable chip to deal?
Dan: The two most trade-able assets are Delonte and Wally. As much as I like Delonte’s game, the ideal role in this league for him is to be a combo guard off the bench. Wally ultimately could help a contender as instant offense off the bench as well. I think the C’s roster dictates that he will have to be dealt anyway to open up minutes for Gerald Green in the second half of the year.
Tom: This is a tough one but I would have to say Delonte West. Of course, this is assuming that Rondo is a Rookie of the Year candidate and Telfair continues on his strong preseason. I like watching Delonte play and it would be with mixed emotions to see him go. However, there is a certain Tim Naehring uneasiness that I get with him. West would be a valuable player to a number of Western Conference teams that need to score with Dallas and Phoenix. From the Celtics perspective, his value and short money contract would allow them to package certain other high priced red headed step-players.
Mark: Al Jefferson. I am on record; I don’t think Jefferson is much more than a role player at his best in the NBA. That said, Jefferson has the ability to be a chip in a trade this year. I, absolutely…in this town…right now…. would have thrown in Jefferson to get AI, but I think AI’s price may drop as the Sixers head to the basement this winter.
