Full Court Press: NBA Draft Preview Part III: Bigs Pimpin’

By Jon Duke
June 20, 2005

In the world of the NBA, size matters. Throughout much of the nearly 60-year history of the league, winning teams have been led by at least one outstanding big man. From George Mikan’s Minneapolis Lakers through the eleven-time champion Bill Russell’s Celtics reign to Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan today, nothing beats a good post presence. While the all time greats are once in a generation type players, the Detroit Pistons are proof that a stable of good centers and power forwards can push a team to the top of the heap. In addition, Danny Ainge’s “vision” for the Celtics places an emphasis on accumulating as much young talent as possible through the draft and allows that talent to develop and grow together. Therefore, it goes without saying that the Celtics, who already exhibit a thin frontcourt, may be interested in adding yet another young 4/5 to the mix.

There are a number of schools of thought on exactly who the Celtics should look at should they decide to look towards the post as a need to fill through this draft. Some observers tend to believe that Ainge should draft who ever is the best power forward or center available, while others feel the Celtics should draft a player who complements the game of Al Jefferson and even Kendrick Perkins. I fall somewhere in between.

My ideal frontcourt would be one with a number of talented young “bigs” who bring a variety of different skills to the table. Much like the Detroit Pistons of the late 80’s, I’d want jump shooters and low post muscle men. Bangers who hit the boards with glee, athletic freaks who can keep up with the Dan Gadzuric’s of the world, and finesse players who can make tough passes from the high post. Though I hate mixing sports analogies, think of the Patriots defensive line. Richard Seymour is among the best in the business, but they succeed because each member of that line is a talented young player who plays an important role in the overall success of the defense, and the overall team.

Well enough about philosophy… Here are some of the numerous big men who may, or may not be available when the Celtics make their selection at #18. Given the volatility of this draft, some of these players could go as high as #9 or fall out of the first round all together. The 2005 NBA Draft is shaping up to be deeper than anyone expected.

Andray Blatche: In recent years, NBA observers have lamented the dearth of quality American centers, often wondering where they have all gone. Enter Mr. Blatche. Prior to the arrival of Kevin Garnett, Blatche would have been schooled on the in’s and out’s of playing in the low post, but with so many 7 footers playing on the perimeter a guy Blatche is nearly becoming the norm. At 7 feet 230 lbs., Blatche is a jump shooting big man who isn’t afraid to drive on his defender and take him to the hole. Andray’s “face up” game isn’t a problem, but he has a complete lack of any sort of “back to the basket” game. Blatche seems to have plenty of athleticism to play at the next level, but he is lacking in a number of fundamentals. He appears to be a good rebounder, but isn’t much of a position rebounder, instead using his height and jumping ability to get boards. Blatche is a project but the contrast between his game and Jefferson/Perkins offers Doc more options in matching up with opposing teams. An inside-outside game with Blatche and Jefferson could work quite well.

Charlie Villanueva: The #2 high school prospect two years ago, behind Luol Deng, Villanueva finished his brief stay at UConn with a national championship, but without the resume many assumed he would leave with. Villanueva is unquestionably amongst the most talented individuals in this draft, but his intensity and effort have been questionable at best. At 6-11 236 lbs. Villanueva has the size to play either forward position, or even center should the need arise. It is this versatility that is perhaps Villanueva’s best card in this draft, and allows him to be considered for teams with needs at the “3” and “4”. Charlie has a strong skill set and has a very good handle for someone his size, so projecting him, as a small forward in the pro ranks isn’t a concern particularly given his athletic gifts. Villanueva can be an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, but again the question revolves around his desire. Perhaps the term “head case” is too strong, but he is far from being mentally tough. The talent is certainly there, but Danny Ainge would need to be absolutely certain that Doc’s staff could work with Charlie and improve his mental approach to the game of basketball. Certainly a tall order.

Johan Petro: As with Rashad McCants, it is difficult to discuss a French draft prospect with unbelievable athleticism but questionable focus and desire, and not mention the name “Jerome Moiso”. But, unlike other 19-year-old centers, Petro already has an NBA-ready body and has done enough conditioning that he could come into the league now and feel at home with an uptempo style of play. Petro is a devastating shot blocker, as one would imagine given his athleticism, and has some low post game despite the focus overseas of pulling big men from the basket and making them into face up shooters. On the other hand, Petro is EXTREMELY raw. Johan needs coaching desperately, so perhaps his best option is to be selected and play in the revamped NBDL. The NBA’s new minor league system will reported allow the parent teams to provide a coach to work with that team’s prospects, which could greatly benefit someone with as much room to improve as Petro. If you like high risk, high reward… Petro may be your guy.

Ike Diogu: A classic undersized power forward, Ike Diogu has been terrorizing the Pac 10 for the past three years at Arizona State becoming the collegiate ranks best low post scorer. Diogu weighed in at the Chicago Pre Draft camp at 6-8 255 lbs. with a standing reach of 9-1, which is becoming an increasingly important statistic for smallish post players as their reach is a better measure of their true length in the post. Diogu’s measurement is on par with Al Jefferson’s a year ago and 3 inches shorter than Kendrick Perkins’s mark two years ago. Given these measurements, and Diogu’s tremendous production at ASU, perhaps the best question is whether his game is a good fit for an uptempo squad that already has a pair of young big men who also excel in the low post. Is duplication too much of a problem or is the proverbial “best player available” the way to go?

Andrew Bynum: This Garden State product wasn’t on many draftniks radar screens until some impressive performances in high school all star games this spring. Of all the post prospects in this draft, the least may be known about Bynum. A 7-0 280lbs. monster, Bynum appears to be impressing NBA GM’s as he moves around the league through various workouts. Bynum has also put up a series of eye-popping Pre Draft stats (7-6 wingspan, 33 inch standstill vertical jump, 9-4 standing reach, and a 7 foot plus height measurement barefoot) that has scouts drooling, and draft rumormongers saying that Bynum has a promise from the Lakers, Timberwolves, and now possibly the Celtics. Bynum isn’t completely from nowhere, Jim Calhoun signed Bynum to enter UConn in the fall, but as with J.R. Smith last year his stock catapulted off of impressive performances against other top flight high school prospects. The drumbeat on Bynum has gotten considerably louder in recent days; in fact DraftExpress.com recently noted that Bynum’s “Best Case Scenario” was Shaquille O’Neal. I’ll take that with a grain of salt, but it is fair to say that the more NBA scouts have seen this guy, the higher his profile has risen.

Martynas Andriuskevicius: Last spring, Andriuskevicius threw his name into the draft, and undoubtedly left some teams unhappy that he ultimately pulled out. At the time, “Marty” seemed to be a sure fire lottery pick with rumors of a promise from the Phoenix Suns to draft him with the 7th pick. Once “Marty” pulled out, he immediately jumped to the top of early mock draft boards for this season, but following a disappointing season in Europe few thought Andriuskevicius would make the jump into the draft this season. Nevertheless, “Marty” is in and deserves strong consideration for any team with a selection in the top 20. Though measuring 7-3 230 lbs., “Marty” projects as a power forward due to his quickness and inside-outside offensive game. Like most Euro big men, “Marty” is a skilled passer and can drive to the basket if needed. Skills, he has no doubt worked on under the tutelage of his instructor, Arvydas Sabonis. On the downside, like Petro, “Marty” is still quite raw. Andriuskevicius has little low post game to speak of and his overall rebounding fundaments need attention. Now a huge part of improving “Marty’s” rebounding will be including him in a stringent conditioning program to add muscle mass and weight to his slight frame. If “Marty” can receive the necessary attention to these weaknesses, he could become an impact player in the league. Again, like Petro, this is a high-risk high reward situation, but the stakes at 18 are such a team like the Celtics can gamble somewhat with young talent given the amount of players the Celtics have under the age of 24.

Sean May: The unquestioned driving force behind North Carolina’s victory in the NCAA national championship, Sean May had accomplished everything he could on the college level and had to move on to greater challenges. Like Diogu, May is a bit undersized as a power forward at only 6-8 256 lbs., but Sean is also tremendously productive. A great rebounder May knows how to box out and fundamentally put himself in the best position to collect a rebound. May isn’t the scorer Diogu is, particularly with his back to the basket, but he can finish at the basket. Athletically, May leaves many scouts lacking, but who knows what the results could be under the watchful eyes of Celtics workout gurus Walter Norton and Bryan Doo. Certainly they have worked wonders with Kendrick Perkins in short order, and rebounding remains an area of need for the Celtics. But, the question of duplication is one Ainge must answer before considering the selection of Sean May.

Chris Taft: On the other end of the spectrum from Sean May, you have Chris Taft. Taft, coming off a very successful freshman campaign last year, entered this past season with a number of expectations and ended the season with disappointing results. Taft’s Pittsburgh Panthers were ranked high in many preseason college polls, but Pitt faltered early as their star sophomore played completely uninspired ball for the first two months of the season. The term “going through the motions” has been used more than once to describe Taft’s effort on the court, and his game seems to come nearly exclusively from his outstanding athleticism. Athleticism that put him at the top of many mock drafts throughout the winter, despite lackluster performances in the early parts of his season at Pitt. Like Villanueva, Taft has lottery level talent, but his mental approach to the game has been questioned often. And, it appears that Taft has not recognized this issue as his performances in workouts for various teams have perplexed and confused NBA GM’s league wide with his apparent lack of effort on the court.

As those of you who pay incredible attention to the NBA Draft may know, there are a number of other post players who may receive consideration from the Celtics with the 18th pick that I have not profiled here. But here they are, in brief:

Wayne Simien (6-9 255 lbs.): Another Kansas product who can rebound and score inside with anyone, but can he keep up physically with the NBA’s best power forwards?

David Lee (6-9 229 lbs.): Lee might be more of a “Big 3” than a pure power forward in the NBA, but has good athleticism and fundamentals. The questions revolve around where he can play and finding the right system that takes advantage of his skills. The C’s don’t have anyone like him on their roster.

Randolph Morris (6-11 266 lbs.): The only member of last year’s Atlanta trio of NBA prospects to go to college, Morris decided he wanted to join Josh Smith and Dwight Howard in the league. Unfortunately, Morris’s game still needs work, but he has the physical tools to be a successful center in the NBA. But whether he has the work ethic necessary to improve is unknown.

So there you have it, our three-part look at the prospects in the NBA Draft is complete. Look for one last Full Court Press prior to the draft that will give you an idea of how all these prospects appear on the draft board and possibly a look at any hot draft rumors that involve the most decorated franchise in NBA history.